Today’s Key Market Drivers – 7th November 2017
The RBA will leave the cash rate on hold today.
There is one bet this Melbourne Cup Day that if you could make has a 99.9% probability of paying, but I doubt you could find a bookie willing to give you odds worth taking. The RBA will leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.5% when it releases its statement at 2.30pm AEDST. The Aussie Dollar moved off its Friday lows on Monday but has not closed above Friday’s high nor has it reached back up to the 200 Day EMA on the daily chart. The low of the 5-day range I mentioned yesterday needs to be broken for it to gain momentum to the downside and if there is any economic news early this week that has the potential to see the lows broken it’s the RBA statement today. What the sellers will need to read is a bearish statement from the RBA about inflation and the general economy and something along the lines of “interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future”.
There was no high impacting economic news on Monday for the market to grab onto and today’s RBA statement isn’t likely going to impact the important European and US trading sessions. In fact, this week the high impacting market driving news may not come from the economic calendar at all and may come from global leaders who are meeting in Asia. Trump is set to rub shoulders with Putin, Turnbull, Abe, Xi Jinping and other Asian leaders and I have no doubt Trump’s Twitter account will fire up at some point. The positive momentum on the US Dollar is still in play however what’s going to drive price higher is some good news on Trump’s tax proposals or comments from a Fed official about how many times they will likely raise rates in 2018. If there is no high impacting news there is no major theme and price will drift around like a boat lost in the ocean.
After taking a dip post the Bank of England’s rate increase last week the Pound has recovered and moved back higher against the Aussie Dollar. If today’s RBA statement pushes the AUD lower, the GBP v AUD has the potential to move back towards the top of the recent range for 2017 which is 1.7600. Also, take note of the EUR v USD weekly chart which I discuss in my daily video today. Price has closed a weekly candle below the 200 Day EMA, the first time this has occurred since August 2014. Price subsequently fell just short of 3000 ticks over 12 months. Do not discount the importance of weekly candle closes with fundamental momentum.
About the Author: Andrew Barnett
Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular key-note speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).
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