Today’s Key Market Drivers: 4th October 2019
Join me today for Money Exchange.
Live on the Train With Andrew YouTube channel at 1.00pm AEDT I will be sharing…
- The 3 most difficult things about being a trader.
- A Wave count update for all the major pairs.
- Why today’s US jobs number is so important for the US Dollar.
- Understanding currency correlations when markets turn bearish.
- More instant prize giveaways!!!
The 200 EMA does it again for the S&P 500.
With only medium impacting US economic data released on Thursday bargain hunters help support the S&P 500 right off the 200 EMA on the daily chart however the US Dollar continued to remain subdued following a weaker than expected Services Sector number. CNBC reports this morning. “Data on Thursday showed that the Institute for Supply Management’s services sector index fell to 52.6 in September from 56.4 the previous month.”
I will discuss in detail on Monday Exchange the importance of the official US jobs number released in the US trading session today because if it misses the markets estimates the stock market and US Dollar will be very volatile.
More rate cuts to come at the US Fed.
Whilst US economic data continues to point towards an economic slowdown, traders will continue to price in further interest rate cuts at the US Fed and this will keep the greenback on the defensive in the short to medium term.
Futures markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance of another 25 basis point cut to the official US cash rate before Xmas. The bottom line is weaker than expected US data is likely going to see the US Dollar go lower in the short term and this will also likely drag down stocks.
Markets will go dormant until the US jobs number.
Don’t expect any impulsive moves on FX markets today until the US jobs number is released. It is highly unlikely any investment bank and hedge fund trader is going to punt the market in the lead up to the official Non-Farm Payrolls number which is expected to show the US economy added 145,000 jobs in the month of September and the official unemployment rate remains at 3.7%.
If the number that prints at 10.30pm AEST is weaker than expected I would anticipate a wave of selling on the US Dollar and US stock index markets. DO NOT attempt to trade the news at 10.30pm! I am warning you now. I have been doing this long enough that I understand how some members interpret my commentary. “Oh, AB said the US Dollar would dive if the number is weak, so let’s sit up and see what happens and short the US Dollar if price starts to go down after the news.”
If you do this sort of trading you are nothing but a punter who is going to see their account be drained by professional traders who know how losing traders think. I’m sorry but I am not here to win friends, I am here to tell you how to win and if you want to trade the high impacting news, just go and play the pokies this Friday night instead, it will offer more entertainment value.
In other news.
What other news? There is no other news worth talking about because the US jobs number is all that matters this Friday.
One of the deadliest things you can do is settle for less than you are capable of.
About the Author: Andrew Barnett
Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).
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