Today’s Key Market Drivers: 3rd July 2019

Something doesn’t add up.


Tuesday’s US trading session saw some price action that doesn’t make sense to me and therefore I will take very little forward indication as to how markets may trade today. Let me explain.

The S&P 500 the world’s largest stock index rallied again and touched a new record-breaking high and when we see stocks rallying, we usually see the safe haven currencies on the back foot. The US trading session saw stocks rally and also the Yen rally which from a market correlation perspective makes no sense. There was no high impacting economic data released in Tuesday’s US trading session so, therefore, I am not going to try and explain why prices moved as they did because there was no catalyst behind any of the moves.

Aussie Dollar rallied post RBA rate cut.


It wasn’t a surprise in the Asian trading session to see the Aussie Dollar rally post the RBA’s decision to cut the official cash rate from 1.25% to 1%. As I said in yesterday’s report the market had the rate cut 100% priced in by the time the statement was released and what we saw was a rally higher as traders read the statement and took from it that the RBA would likely sit on the sidelines for some months before another rate adjustment.

The Trump administration threatens tariffs on Euro Area nations.


Euro Area nations may soon feel the pinch of US trade tariffs after the Trump administration announced on Tuesday that it may impose $4 billion of trade tariffs on goods coming out of Euro Area Nations and into the USA. In short, it’s payback for a long-running dispute surrounding aircraft subsidies. The comments kept a lid on the Euro and if the Trump administration does follow through on its threats it has the potential to pull back global stock indexes and rally the safe haven currencies. More to come on this story.

The Euro Area is the largest economic region in the world and the USA is a major trading partner for many European companies.

No regrets about 2018/19 financial year.


Well, it ended up being an OK financial year for my trades on the two accounts I have looked after. My FX trades produced 22% return on investment never risking more than 2% and, in many trades, less. Giving consideration to the fact I did not trade in July 2018 and the final result was over 11 months and not 12 I am satisfied but at the same time a little disappointed. The reason being is that back in early May I was in a USD v JPY position and my FX account was up over 30% return on investment for the financial year. The last 6 weeks of the financial year have been a draw down period larger than I would like.

My ShareSmart stock portfolio that I have looked after since January 1st with each trade sent to ShareSmart subscribers via the Trade Time app delivered a 10% return on investment over 6 months and I will continue to look after this portfolio going forward. My expectation is that a 20% return or better over the calendar year is achievable.

There have been a few trends that continued with my trading throughout 2018/19 that need to be addressed. My trading results suffered whilst I was away from my home trading desk. In January I lost money when I was based in Melbourne and I also lost money in June whilst I’ve been based here in the USA. Coincidence? Who knows, but I have to acknowledge it and be frank about the probability my focus was not the same. I can’t kid myself; it is what it is and in future, I will lower my risk when I travel and endeavour to lift my focus. I am only human, I will make mistakes and I will own every one of them.

Do I have any regrets? No. We can all look back and wish we would have done things differently and there are 3 or 4 trades if I had my time again, I would trade differently but that’s wishful thinking as I can’t get them back. The best I can do is learn from the experience 2018/19 has offered.

I can honestly say I’ve given it everything I can and whilst I’m disappointed in the last 6 weeks, over the entire year things have panned out reasonably well.

For those new members of LTG GoldRock who are probably questioning if this AB fella knows what he is doing I apologise about the last 6 weeks, stick with me, the strategy I use I am very positive will come good and the recent drawdown is similar to what I experienced in January before I went on a 3 ½ month winning streak.

What I am most excited about is the number of members of LTG GoldRock who have traded well through the last financial year. Without question, there have been more members making money in the financial year 2018/19 than we have ever experienced at LTG GoldRock. Keep up the good work.

I am eager to make this coming financial year the best ever and together with our wonderful team look forward to supporting you every step of the way.


Dreams do not become reality without discipline and extreme ownership.

AB

 

About the Author: Andrew Barnett

Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

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