Today’s Key Market Drivers: 30th July 2018
“It’s going to be a huge week for economic data.”
Donald Trump has been crowing all weekend about how great the 2nd quarter US GDP numbers were when released on Friday and he is right to boast, they were impressive. The best in more than 4 years. But the market appeared to take a more cautious view with the 2nd quarter GDP figures only meeting the markets estimates and traders and economists are more focused on what the trade tariffs may do to growth in future quarters. The US Dollar dipped on Friday and if you’ve viewed my Sunday PreMarket Prep video from a technical perspective the US Dollar does look like it wants to pull back against some of its major rivals before its next leg higher. The USD v JPY as an example is looking to move up into wave #5 on the 4-hour chart, however, I would prefer to see the AO on the daily chart stretch below the zero line first before a price rejection long entry is considered. If you haven’t already viewed Sunday’s Pre-Market Prep video please take a moment this morning to do so. I am looking to short the GBP v NZD early this week.
The week is shaping up to be an extremely busy one for currency markets with a huge amount of high impacting economic data scheduled for release. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan are reporting with the BOJ first up on Tuesday. Rumours have been swirling that the BOJ may decide to reduce its stimulus program and if this is confirmed expect to see a higher Yen. The BOE is expected to raise the official cash rate from 0.5% to 0.75% which will be the first rate increase from the Bank of England since the GFC in 2008. Traders have already priced in the rate increase from the BOE so what will drive the Pound higher or lower is any forward guidance from the BOE on when the next rate increase will be. I doubt the BOE will raise the official cash rate again in 2018 and this is what currency traders will want to know. How dovish or hawkish the BOE is on Thursday will determine the medium-term direction for the Pound.
As we start a fresh new trading week there is no major theme that traders are riding this Monday and whilst the week is going to be a blockbuster week for economic data, today the only noteworthy high impacting news is German CPI (inflation) data which is due at 10.00pm AEST and will impact the Euro.
There are a number of movements on the Bullish N Bearish indicator this Monday, however, I suspect those pairs that are not showing a clear wave cycle will gain some movement and provide a clearer view as the week goes on. Be patient and look after your risk management as your #1 priority.
This week I will be releasing dates for my September Master Class Series which will see me visit Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Sunshine Coast and Auckland. These events are free for all LTG GoldRock members so please keep an eye out in your inbox for your registration link, dates and locations.
Any trade updates throughout the day will be sent via Trade Time. You can also follow my daily updates on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram by searching for TrainwithAndrew. Make sure you subscribe to the Andrew Barnett YouTube channel after watching today’s Sunrise video below.
About the Author: Andrew Barnett
Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).
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