Today’s Key Market Drivers: 1st March 2019

Trump and Kim talks were fruitless.

Trump asked for North Korea to denuclearise and Kim asked the US to drop US sanctions. Neither was willing to give any ground and the talks ended abruptly with both leaders heading home having achieved nothing more than what seems to be a frank, at times friendly but fruitless get-together.

Financial markets were caught off guard and had priced in a positive conclusion to the talks and thus index futures markets fell on the news the talks had broken down. Safe haven assets rallied sharply and the typical risk-off base currencies such as the AUD and NZD continued their slides back lower.

US GDP figures continue to impress.

The US economy continues to tick along at an impressive pace with fourth quarter 2018 annualised GDP date beating market estimates coming in at 2.6% vs the expected 2.2%. The US Dollar naturally has rallied on the news with the better than expected GDP number likely to have traders questioning if the slow down in the US economy everyone has been expecting this year is going to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that if the first quarter 2019 growth is consistent with 2018’s the Fed will move on rates in the second half of the year.

Friday’s calendar shows plenty of high tickets items to be released.

Friday is the beginning of a new month and the economic calendar is jam-packed today with high impacting data. You can forget the Asian trading session there is nothing there but the European trading session will keep the Euro busy with German Unemployment and Euro Zone Inflation figures set for release. UK Manufacturing numbers will also be closely eyed along with Italian GDP. In the US trading session, Canada releases its latest GDP and Manufacturing number and the US set to release Personal Income and Spending, PCE Core data which stands for Personal Consumption Expenditure. Plus, the US will share their latest manufacturing numbers.

Thursday’s Australian Capital Expenditure and China PMI gave traders are roller coaster ride.

Big businesses that were surveyed showed no signs of slowing down their capital expenditure purchases with the latest data released yesterday showing an uptick of 2.5% compared to the last Cap Ex number. The Aussie Dollar jumped higher on the news but the rally was short lived because China’s Manufacturing data was released only 30 minutes later and showed another slow down had occurred. The AUD dipped back lower and the trend continued through the US trading session with local currency now back below Monday’s opening price.

It felt good to finish the month positive.

After a small loss in January, I managed to remain patient through February and picked up 8.5% making the financial year to date 25.4%. I entered just two trades in February however one trade entered on the 30th January GBPNZD did close out profitable in February however I did not apply that positive result to the February returns with only the two trades entered and exited in February contributing to the February result.

Keep going! AB

 

About the Author: Andrew Barnett

Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

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