Today’s Key Market Drivers: 19th March 2019
Thank you everyone.
I wanted to start today’s report by thanking all the traders who attended Trading Mastery over the past 3 days. I know from the comments and commitments made lives have already been changed and I will continue to do my very best every day to lead by example and to ensure my commitments also remain unbroken. Thank you for getting up each morning at 5.00am to meet me on the beach and enthusiastically bring an open mind and heart to each trading, yoga, meditation, fitness and nutrition training session over the 3 days. Within your Trading Mastery Workbook is all the tools you need to live a life filled with Wealth, Health and Happiness.
I am truly blessed to have such a wonderful group of clients who I also consider to be my friends. It was a pleasure to host you all in my home town here in Noosa Heads.
Aussie Dollar remains well supported.
The Aussie Dollar vs US Dollar remains well supported as traders on Wall Street are in a “Risk-On” mode pushing US stock indexes to new 2019 highs. The trade tensions and tariffs between the US and China that threatened to push the AUD v USD below 0.70c seem to have evaporated for now with traders pricing in their expectation that a positive trade deal can be reached between the US and China.
The press is speculating that President Xi and President Trump will meet in coming weeks to announce the trade deal and whilst there is no arguing the market remains positive the bottom line is the devil in the detail will still need to be read and there are no guarantees the market will like the new deal even if Trump and Xi try and put a positive spin on it.
Longer term I still believe the AUD v USD has a way to fall, however, in the short to medium term it will have pullbacks higher as we are seeing now.
What will the US Fed have to say this week?
March’s US Fed statement is widely expected to be dovish with the Fed maintaining a wait and see approach with respect to interest rate hikes. The US Dollar has remained weak over the past 5 trading sessions and I don’t expect any major change in sentiment in coming days until the Fed statement has come and gone.
If the Fed continues to remain dovish about future interest rate hikes this will mean the stock market will likely remain well supported. The initial fall on US stock markets leading into Xmas was all to do with the fact traders were concerned that higher interest rates would hurt US company earnings and the ability for investors to service debt. If the Fed is not going to raise rates in 2019 then company earnings and debt servicing isn’t as big of a threat and therefore stocks and emerging market currencies will likely be supported and the safe haven currencies remain overall weak.
Stay away from the Pound until after Brexit is sorted.
It is my strong recommendation that you stay away from the Pound for the next couple of weeks until a clearer path for Brexit is established. The volatility may be enticing to trade but the reality is anything could happen at a moment’s notice and swings for and against your trade have the potential to whipsaw you in and out of positions. In my opinion, it is just gambling to be trading the Pound at present. That will change but managing risk is priority #1 and opportunity for profit is everywhere in financial markets over a 12-month period. Be patient.
Today sees the release of slew of UK economic data.
With Brexit worries still lingering traders will have the opportunity to digest a slew of UK economic data before the Bank of England reports later this week. At 7.30pm AEST we will see the release of Jobless Claims, Average Weekly Earnings and the official Unemployment Report which is expected to show the official unemployment rate will remain steady at 4%.
In other economic news, Tuesday the Euro Zone and Germany will release economic sentiment survey’s and the US trading session will see January Durable Goods and Factory Orders data released. None of these data numbers in my view have the potential to change market sentiment.
Your level of success will be determined by your level of discipline and perseverance.
About the Author: Andrew Barnett
Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).
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