Today’s Key Market Drivers: 13th March 2019
UK Parliament resoundingly rejects new Brexit proposal.
The Pound was up and down like a yo-yo on Tuesday as traders jostled to try and predict the outcome of the latest UK parliamentary vote on a Brexit deal. The end result was Theresa May’s newly negotiated plan with the EU was resoundingly rejected once again. So, what’s next.
On Wednesday, the British parliament will vote on whether or not to leave the EU without a deal on March 29 or vote on whether to request a delay to the March 29 exit date. It appears increasingly likely after nearly 3 years the UK will leave the EU without a deal, something that was simply unimaginable 2 years ago.
So, what will happen to the Pound? To be perfectly frank with you, I have no clue and if anyone tells you they know how the Pound will trade post the upcoming votes they are full of it, nobody does. The outcome is so uncertain it is simply impossible to accurately guess which way investment banks and hedge funds will trade.
US Inflation data falls flat, Durable Goods next.
February’s US inflation data just missed estimates on Tuesday with a reading of 1.5% year on year vs the 1.6% the market was expecting. Traders once again sold off the US Dollar on fears the world’s largest economy is slowing and the US Fed will not likely raise rates in 2019 if the current theme of weaker economic data continues.
According to CNBC, the inflation data was the smallest annual gain in 2 ½ years and with inflation being one of the Fed’s mandates to whether it lowers or raises rates, the weak Feb number all points towards the Fed not moving rates higher in 2019.
Westpac Consumer Confidence Numbers are due today.
Yesterday it was Australian Business Confidence numbers that were released and today it’s the Westpac Consumer Confidence report that will print on screens at 10.30am AEDT.
The NAB Business Confidence number released yesterday showed a drop from 4 to 2 but failed to dent the AUD v USD as the dominant currency is currently the US Dollar which continued to weaken.
I am expecting a weak Consumer Confidence report but I’m not expecting it to have any major impact on the AUD unless well outside of market estimates.
US Durable Goods could tell us if US consumers are really spending or not.
The next big-ticket US economic data number is due Wednesday with the Durable Goods number which is essentially another Retail Sales data for big-ticket items that are supposed to last more than 3 years. These items include furniture, white goods, TV and are generally considered bigger ticket items above the usual retail spend.
Economists surveyed are expecting a decline of -0.4% so if the number prints worse than this at 11.30pm AEDT the US Dollar will likely be sold off once again.
If your life is unorganised, so will your trading results be.
Your trading results will greatly be impacted by how well you run your life. If you are all over the place, unorganised and not systematic in your approach to things then its unlikely you are going to make money trading. Some of the worst traders are people who just cannot bring themselves to be organised. Those people who detest structure don’t make it in this business and on many occasions, they think their carefree “if it’s meant to be it will be” attitude sees them out the back door quick smart.
If you want to survive and thrive in this business you need to be obsessively structured in how you prepare, execute and monitor your trades. Making money as a trader also requires a level of discipline and composure that is beyond anything you’ve ever done before and the life skill that it teaches you is simply awesome to use in other aspects of your life. Winning at trading teaches you how to win at life.
Overcome the mindset challenges of trading and master the structure that is required and nothing will stop you.
Winning isn’t everything. But wanting to win is. Vince Lombardi.
About the Author: Andrew Barnett
Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).
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