Today’s Key Market Drivers: 12th November 2018
“A picture says a thousand words.”
Financial markets turned bearish again on Friday and I suspect will remain so for the early part of this week after the US Fed confirmed it remains on track to continue to tighten US interest rates as the economy powers ahead. Traders bought back into the US Dollar after it dipped earlier in the week when the Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives following Mid Term US Elections. As traders on Friday priced in their expectations of higher interest rates in the US the stock market fell with the S&P 500 closing down 1%. I anticipate the US 10 Year Treasury Yield will soon take another leg higher and go above the 3.3% level which will only see more money come out of stocks and into fixed income. The 10 Year Treasury Yield touched 3.2% again late in the week and I am predicting the 10 Year will reach 3.5% by early 2019. It’s going to be tough going for stock market investors in the coming 12 months as I just cannot see meaningful gains coming as interest rates continue to rise globally.
The US Dollar was the big winner late in the week and as you look at your charts, you’ll see currency crosses such as the AUD v USD, NZD v USD, EUR v USD and GBP v USD all lower. This has a lot more to do with a strong greenback rather than the lower base currencies that trade against it. Certainly, the Euro continues to struggle under the weight of average economic data numbers and Italy’s budget and debt challenges. This week sees a ton of Euro Area and German economic data and if the recent data is any guide this week’s numbers are unlikely to beat the market’s estimates. My expectation is stocks will decline early in the week and money will flow for the safe haven currencies. There are no major Central Banks reporting monthly policy statements this week but there is a ton of medium and high impacting news beginning on Tuesday that will keep traders busy. Monday sees nothing of significance and is the reason why I hold the view the markets negative bias on Friday will likely continue today.
The Canadian Dollar may come under selling pressure this week if Oil prices continue to slide along with global stock indexes. My Sunday PreMarket Prep Video shows you the key levels the Canadian Dollar v the Yen and US Dollar have recently broken and there is a direct correlation between the CAD falling when stock and oil prices fall. The CAD v JPY is a good example and is poised for a potential larger leg lower if financial markets sell off again.
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About the Author: Andrew Barnett
Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).
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