Today’s Key Market Drivers: 12th March 2019

US Retail Sales fail to lift the US Dollar.

It wasn’t exactly a tear away positive reading but it did slightly beat estimates with a reading of +0.2% vs the 0% economist expected. I am talking about January’s US Retail Sales number which failed to move the US Dollar back higher following Friday’s shocker 20,000 February job creation number. The reason traders didn’t take positively to the positive January Retail Sales number is that December’s Retail Sales number was downgraded and traders saw this as a potential sign of things to come in the US economy.

Tuesday sees another high impacting data number with US Inflation due to print across Bloomberg screens at 11.30pm AEDT tonight. Inflation is the largest barometer a Central Bank will use in determining if it will raise or lower interest rates. Every other piece of economic data feeds into inflation and in the case of the US Dollar if it’s going to rally on Tuesday the inflation reading will need to beat the market’s estimates of 1.6% (year on year).

Given US inflation is released monthly and not quarterly like in Australia the probability of the market being completely surprised is low but nevertheless the inflation reading today will be important for the short to term direction of the US Dollar and medium-term sentiment of professional traders. A stronger than expected reading will see the US Dollar rise and the opposite for a weaker reading.

The weaker US economic data goes into 2019 the more traders will price in their expectation the US Fed will keep interest rates on hold which will likely keep downward pressure on the US Dollar in the short to medium term.

Pound rallies before key Brexit vote.

The Pound rallied strongly on Monday only 24 hours prior to what will be one of the most important parliamentary votes in recent UK history. Most “so-called experts” are predicting May’s latest Brexit deal will be voted down once again which will trigger off other votes that could see…

  1. The UK leave the EU without a firm deal. (likely)
  2. Vote to extend the Brexit exit date of March 29. (probable)
  3. Vote to abandon plans to leave the EU. (probable)

I am not remotely interested in trying to punt the outcome of this Brexit dilemma and attempt to short or long the Pound. The volatility could be substantial and I will leave trading this type of news-driven event to the punters who in the vast majority of cases will blow up their accounts.

NAB Business Confidence numbers for Australia are due today.

The Asian trading session has no high impacting news today with only a Medium impacting NAB Business Confidence data set for release. This is essentially a survey of local businesses to gauge their “confidence” and whether it beats or misses estimates unless it’s by a large margin isn’t likely to impact the AUD in a big way.

Here is a small taste from the Mindset section of the 320-page Trading Mastery Workbook.

Most traders are very interested to learn trading systems but very few are absolutely committed to learning how to control their mind in order to achieve their best results. Millions of traders every week spend hours and hours gazing at their screens trying to figure out which indicator is going to tell them where the market is going next. Very few spend any time practising and honing their mind control skills, which is the second most important skill to learn behind risk management. Instead of focusing their efforts on themselves and learning how they can think better and act differently they get lost chasing the holy grail of trading systems, which doesn’t exist.

It is not exciting to talk about mind control skills and emotion. Traders generally don’t want to acknowledge that it’s them causing their poor results, it’s their thoughts and their actions that are self-sabotaging their account. They think it’s the trading system that’s the problem and continue to search for the holy grail, the quick fix, the hack, the high probability system that’s going to give them consistent results. If you are continually switching between trading systems you are one of these traders I just described.

Learning to successfully manage your thoughts and actions when under pressure is the #1 skill needed to make money in the markets. Therefore, learning how to better control your thoughts should be the one thing that you practise the most.

This is the very reason why I have one of the world’s best mediation practitioners coming to teach Trading Mastery attendees on how to focus and concentrate.

People either inspire you or drain you. Pick them wisely. AB


About the Author: Andrew Barnett

Andrew is a professional trader and successful investor who has a strong focus on education. He is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one of Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Director at LTG GoldRock, Andrew Barnett, guides thousands of traders around the world in the live market on a daily basis, advising them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. Andrew, a regular keynote speaker at trading and wealth-creation events throughout the Asia Pacific region, is an authorized representative registered with the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

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